SC Colloquium: "Hydrodynamic modeling for the short and long term prediction of hurricane storm surges"

Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering
University of Central Florida

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 -- 3:30 P.M. 499 Dirac Science Library

Abstract:

Hurricane storm surges pose a significant threat to the state of Florida. Computational models are used to solve the shallow water equations and model storm surges for both real-time forecasting and long-term planning. Storm surge is essentially the net result of surface wind shear and bottom stress. As a result, these components are especially important to storm surge modeling. In this talk, Talea Mayo will discuss research she has conducted in an effort to accurately represent both components. Specifically, she will discuss a data assimilation framework she developed that can be used to estimate bottom stress parameters in hydrodynamic models using tidal elevation data. She will also discuss her work on the implementation of novel parametric wind models in the operational storm surge model of the United States.

In addition to model development, Talea has many interests in model applications. She has recently become interested in risk analysis for long term planning, and has used extreme value analysis to assess the current and future risk of storm surges in the northeastern United States. She is also interested in risk analysis for real-time forecasting, and is currently developing methods to assess the storm surge risk of an impending storm, given the uncertainties surrounding the forecasted hurricane track and intensity. She will discuss both applications in this talk.